The only consistent way to make money from wagering on sports is to find value odds. If Aussies don’t bet for value, they are missing out on long term success. Most bettors tend to wager on a random outcome without even realising it. This is the wrong approach and can cost you winnings. However, you will win a lot of bets by betting on the possible outcome every time. The downfall to this is that you won’t make an overall profit. So, to find value in betting odds is a worthwhile exercise.
We hope you realise that sports betting is not about selecting many winners. It is rather about finding odds that are in your favour. In order to do this successfully, punters have to understand what value means. You learn about how to point out the value in the betting market. There are useful tips that are available for punters to get the results they desire. We discuss how to find value in betting odds in our guide.
Top Sportsbooks
The following sites have the best odds for punters.
Value in Sports Betting Odds
Value can be positive or negative when it comes to sports wagering. When the probability of a bet winning is higher than the odds, we refer to this as a positive value. The opposite applies for negative value, in this case, a wager is unlikely to win that the odds displayed. We use a coin as an example to get our message across. The can either land on heads or tails and the same goes for betting outcomes. The coin shows that whether you choose heads or tails, you have a 50% of winning.
The number between 0 and 1 is the way probability is shown (1/Odds). If you want implied probability as a percentage you can use this formula 1/Odds x 100=probability of the odds which will be a percentage. Players can use the odds converter tool which will calculate the odds for you. Players need to be able to spot bets that have a positive value. These are the wagers that will make you cash in the long term. Like we said, consistently wagering when the odds are in your favour will result in profit.
How to Find the Expected Value?
Here are some tricks on how to find better value:
- Wager on what you are confident about. There is no purpose in betting on a sport you know little or nothing about. Punters have a better chance of finding value when they wager on sports, they are knowledgeable about.
- Consider several factors that affect the outcome of a game. This means looking at everything that can affect your results.
- Analyse your probability prior to odds. It’s vital to do this before you even peek at the odds. Having a look at the odds before will influence you so way or the other.
- Shop Around to get the best odds available at different bookmakers. You have to do this before you bet on any sport.
How to Spot Value in Betting Markets
Follow these two steps in our guide to identifying value in sports betting markets:
- Access the probabilities of the likely outcome.
- Compare the probabilities to implied probabilities of the odds.
So, as you can see finding value in odds is not that difficult if you apply your mind. By following our instructions, you will be able to make a profit in the long run. We are not saying that you will definitely win but you stand a better chance.
Odds Calculator
Here is how punters can calculate expected value:
Probability of the outcome multiply by the decimal odds then minus 100%
For example:
The first Sportsbook will display odds of 1.60 for a particular team or player. The calculations will be as follows; 50% x 1.60-100% =-20%. This means the sportsbook is not offering you the true value. This is not an ideal bet that you would want to make.
Another example is the 2nd Sportsbook who offers you 2.5. You calculate the value this way; 50% x 2.5 -100% = 25%. This bookmaker is offering you a 25% value wager on heads in a coin toss. Here there is an opportunity to make money.
Check Out Our Other Sports Betting Guides
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- Betting Odds
- Big Game Prop Bets
- Biggest Challenges in Betting
- Bracket Predictions Explained
- Comparing Odds and Line Shopping
- For and Against
- Glossary
- Line Betting
- Moneyline
- Moneyline Vs Point Spreads
- Multi Bets
- Over Unders
- Props
- Puckline Betting
- Optimising Your Selection Process
- Teasers and Pleasers
- Understanding Odds